Bitcoin has entered a quiet period, with its price moving within a limited range while various forces compete for influence. Although some long-term fundamentals are in place to support a rise, the asset remains directionless for now.
This article outlines what could eventually push Bitcoin higher and examines current market behaviour, including how investors and traders are responding to recent developments in macroeconomics, regulation, and speculative activity.
What Could Push Bitcoin Above $110,000?
Several structural and external factors could contribute to a significant increase in Bitcoin’s price. One of the most important is growing institutional demand. Exchange-traded funds that offer direct Bitcoin exposure, such as BlackRock’s IBIT, have already attracted large amounts of capital.
If demand from pension funds or sovereign wealth funds increases, the limited supply of Bitcoin may not be able to meet it. With only 21 million BTC in total and an estimated 20% permanently lost, even a small increase in demand from institutions could lead to substantial price appreciation.
The halving in April 2024 is another key factor. By reducing block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, the event has cut daily new issuance by roughly 450 BTC.
In previous cycles, halvings have been followed by significant price increases 12 to 18 months later. If this pattern repeats, the market could see a new peak by late 2025, especially if demand continues to rise while supply tightens.
Macroeconomic conditions could also support a higher price. If the US Federal Reserve lowers interest rates due to economic weakness or declining inflation, investors may shift funds into assets that are not tied to fiat currencies.
A weakening US dollar tends to benefit assets like Bitcoin, particularly when combined with concerns about inflation or global instability. During geopolitical conflicts or economic sanctions, Bitcoin’s independence from central banks may appeal to investors looking for alternatives.
Adoption at the national and corporate level may also play a role. El Salvador’s use of Bitcoin as legal tender has not been widely replicated, but it may influence other countries in the future.
At the same time, companies such as MicroStrategy have continued to increase their Bitcoin holdings. If more businesses follow this example and add Bitcoin to their balance sheets, demand could increase further.
Technological developments are improving Bitcoin’s usability. Layer-2 solutions such as the Lightning Network are making Bitcoin more suitable for everyday transactions.
Meanwhile, the possibility of clearer regulations in the United States and other jurisdictions could reduce uncertainty and make the asset more attractive to traditional investors.
Finally, retail participation remains a potential driver. If prices begin to rise, media coverage and social media discussions could lead to renewed interest from individual investors.
With platforms like Coinbase offering easier access to Bitcoin, a sudden increase in retail activity is possible, especially if other conditions align.
Current Market Conditions and Investor Sentiment
Although the long-term picture shows some positive signals, Bitcoin is currently trading within a narrow range.
The past week began with notable price swings that led to significant liquidations on both sides of the market.
According to Glassnode, $28.6 million in long positions and $25.2 million in short positions were liquidated within 24 hours. This rare event suggests that traders were heavily leveraged and the market was highly sensitive to small price movements.
Following this, the open interest in Bitcoin contracts declined by around 7%, from 360,000 BTC to 334,000 BTC.
This indicates that speculative positions have been reduced, and the market may be entering a consolidation phase. On-chain data also shows declining profitability and limited user activity, both signs of reduced market enthusiasm.
At the moment, Bitcoin is trading between $100,000 and $110,000. Without a strong catalyst, it may continue to move sideways. Hopes for lower interest rates have faded slightly after the latest inflation data.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, Core PCE, rose to 2.7%, which was higher than expected and marks the first increase since February 2025. This reduces the likelihood of immediate interest rate cuts, which could slow demand for riskier assets like Bitcoin.
In parallel, gold has risen to $2,550 per ounce. This has renewed interest in Bitcoin’s role as a digital alternative to gold.
Some investors are again referring to Bitcoin in this way, particularly during periods of inflation and market stress. However, gold continues to hold a stronger position in traditional portfolios.
Sentiment online remains optimistic. On platforms such as Crypto Twitter, many traders are forecasting that Bitcoin could reach between $135,000 and $160,000 in the coming months.
However, data from the derivatives market shows increasing leverage, which could be a warning sign. If volatility returns, heavily leveraged traders could face another wave of liquidations, leading to short-term instability.
Price projections vary depending on how the market behaves after the halving. A 3 to 5 times increase from the pre-halving price of around $30,000 would place Bitcoin between $90,000 and $150,000.
More speculative scenarios suggest prices could exceed $250,000, but these depend on a series of ideal conditions and are far from guaranteed.
Some risks could delay or reverse any upward movement. A significant regulatory shift, especially one that limits access to Bitcoin in major economies, could have a strong negative effect.
There are also concerns about future technological threats, such as the potential for quantum computing to challenge Bitcoin’s encryption, although this remains a long-term issue.
Conclusion
Bitcoin remains in a period of uncertainty, trading within a narrow range as the market waits for stronger demand.
While institutional interest, reduced supply, and improving technology provide reasons for optimism, short-term momentum is limited. Inflation remains persistent, and the possibility of delayed interest rate cuts may hold the market back.
Whether Bitcoin can break above $110,000 will depend on how these factors evolve. Investors should monitor changes in policy, shifts in institutional behaviour, and signs of renewed activity from retail participants.
Editor: Lydicius