Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle remains one of the most consistent patterns in crypto, shaped by its halving mechanism and the market’s recurring behavioural tendencies. Every four years, the Bitcoin network cuts miner rewards in half, limiting the influx of new coins into circulation.
This halving often sets off a familiar pattern: a quiet accumulation period, followed by a sharp bull run, peaking around a year to eighteen months later. A drawn-out downturn typically follows that surge.
Although some believe that institutional interest and the rise of ETFs could soften this rhythm, the cycle continues to hold due to Bitcoin’s programmed scarcity. With fewer new coins entering the system, supply shocks become predictable, giving traders a reliable structure to work around.
Why the 4-year Cycle Still Matters According to Xapo Bank
The familiar cycle of Bitcoin skyrocketing before retreating into a slump is far from over, says Xapo Bank CEO Seamus Rocca.
He argues that the crypto market still behaves in line with this four-year rhythm, and the idea that we have somehow evolved beyond it is wishful thinking.
Rocca warns that another bear market could arrive without any dramatic trigger, just a slow decline as enthusiasm fades, development cools, or institutional investors shift their allocations.
Source: Merlijn The Trader
Rocca is cautious about the popular belief that Bitcoin is already functioning as a perfect hedge against inflation. “We all want to believe that,” he says, “but at the moment, Bitcoin is still moving in sync with risk assets like the S&P 500.”
He points out that future downturns may not be driven by crises or scandals. Instead, markets can simply run out of momentum. In his words, “sometimes the market just runs out of steam.” No big events, no shock collapses, just disinterest and slow losses.
This reflects a broader pattern in crypto. Even in the absence of panic, markets can slide simply because attention shifts elsewhere. Bitcoin, despite its unique structure, is not immune to investor fatigue.
A Pattern Shaped by Halvings and Market Psychology
Veteran traders often describe Bitcoin’s market cycle as “three up, one down.” That is, three years of gains typically culminate in a steep drop in the fourth.
This cycle has repeated consistently since Bitcoin’s early years, with each downturn closely aligned with the halving schedule that reduces the rate of new Bitcoin entering the market.
Source: AurelienOhayon
The last major decline occurred in 2022, in line with this pattern, following previous crash years in 2014 and 2018.
What usually follows is equally familiar: a slow recovery in the first year post-crash, then sharp upward momentum in years two and three, often peaking around a year after the halving event.
According to historical data, these middle years in the cycle have delivered Bitcoin’s most significant returns.
This has happened not by chance but due to a combination of tightened supply and growing investor interest.
Traders who understand this rhythm have repeatedly used it to their advantage, buying during the quiet periods and exiting during surges. Although no cycle is guaranteed to repeat forever, the consistency of this pattern has become embedded in the market’s expectations.
Right now, Bitcoin appears to be entering this favourable phase again. If previous cycles are any indication, we may be approaching a period where patient holders are rewarded most.
Conclusion
Despite changing market dynamics and growing institutional participation, Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle remains intact. The halving continues to serve as a structural turning point, and the behavioural patterns that follow are still playing out.
As Seamus Rocca reminds us, the crypto market is not immune to slowing momentum, and the old rhythm still has sway. For those watching the long-term picture, understanding this cycle could be more relevant than ever.
Editor: Lydicius