Coinbase’s move into prediction markets has been expected for some time, but the recent leaked screenshots shared by researcher Jane Manchun Wong finally make the direction clear.
The images show Coinbase preparing a dedicated prediction market platform built through Kalshi’s federally regulated infrastructure.
The timing is striking because prediction markets have grown rapidly across 2024 and 2025 as users search for ways to trade opinions on politics, economics, sports, and cultural moments through simple binary outcomes.
Coinbase’s Approach to Building a Regulated Prediction Market
The screenshots reveal a polished interface carrying Coinbase’s familiar visual identity, but the more important element is what sits underneath it.
The product is described as being offered by Coinbase Financial Markets through Kalshi, meaning Coinbase is not attempting to construct its own regulatory framework.
Instead, it is integrating directly with Kalshi’s existing approval from the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This strategic decision allows Coinbase to bypass the regulatory uncertainty that historically discouraged large platforms from entering the sector.
The leak includes pages showing onboarding guides, an FAQ section, and a range of market categories such as economics, science, politics, technology, and sport.
The layout resembles other event contract platforms, but with Coinbase’s presentation and a structure designed for a broader audience familiar with spot crypto markets.
Another notable detail is the reference to USDC or USD as trading units, reinforcing Coinbase’s preference for stable settlement while strengthening USDC’s role across new financial products.
Coinbase first signalled its interest in event-based trading in July when it told CNBC that prediction features were part of its plan to evolve into an everything exchange.
That vision became more explicit on the thirteenth of November when Coinbase and Kalshi confirmed a custodial partnership for USDC-settled event contracts.
With that foundation in place, the leaked interface suggests movement from concept to execution. Prediction markets have developed into one of the categories in digital trading.
Kalshi and Polymarket have both reported record volumes throughout the year while global attention has shifted towards economic data releases, political cycles, sports seasons, and cultural events.
Exchanges have noticed the demand, and several have begun preparing products of their own. Crypto.com has launched a prediction product linked to Trump Media, and Gemini recently confirmed work on an event contract feature within its upcoming super app.
Gemini has also filed to become a designated contract market with the CFTC, a major step for any company aiming to offer regulated prediction contracts.
Coinbase’s entering the sector through Kalshi’s infrastructure is significant. It avoids the regulatory obstacles associated with gambling classifications at the state level by inheriting Kalshi’s existing permissions.
At the same time, it positions Coinbase in a competitive field where user experience, trust, and access to stable settlement assets will differentiate each platform. With millions of existing users and a recognisable brand, Coinbase holds a natural advantage if it executes carefully.
The combination of simple market questions, clear settlement, and integration within the broader Coinbase ecosystem may bring prediction markets further into mainstream usage.
Kalshi’s Expanding Ambition and Its Position Within the Sector
While Coinbase prepares its new platform, Kalshi is also entering a period of rapid expansion. Speaking at the Futures Industry Association’s Expo in Chicago, CEO Tarek Mansour made a direct comparison between prediction markets and traditional US equities.
He believes the sector could eventually compete at the same scale and described the present moment as the early formation of a new class of active traders.
This confidence follows Kalshi’s legal victory last year, which cleared the company to offer political event contracts after court challenges from regulators. That decision transformed Kalshi’s trajectory and accelerated both user growth and product development.
Kalshi has broadened its offering beyond politics and into news events, sports, pop culture, and data-related markets. Its regulatory structure enables the company to operate in states where sports betting restrictions would normally block such products.
This has created an unusual space where Kalshi can grow in areas typically limited to regulated sportsbooks. The company intends to deepen its presence in sports through additional partnerships and to integrate event contracts more closely with media outlets.
Tarek emphasised that prediction markets fit naturally within news environments because they provide a quantifiable reflection of public expectations around unfolding events.
Kalshi separates itself from gambling platforms by framing its markets as financial contracts rather than wagers placed against a house. Users trade yes or no outcomes directly with one another, creating market-driven pricing rather than fixed odds.
This design is central to Kalshi’s relationship with the CFTC, which views the structure as aligned with regulated event contracts rather than consumer gambling.
However, several state-level regulators continue to challenge Kalshi’s operations, and some courts have ruled against the company. This regulatory tension remains one of the most important issues shaping the future of the sector.
Interest from larger financial institutions indicates that prediction markets are gaining legitimacy within traditional finance. Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, has committed significant investment towards Polymarket, positioning it as a serious competitor.
CME Group is also developing a new application with Flutter Entertainment, combining sports-related predictions with financial data contracts.
Increased competition places pressure on Kalshi but also validates Tarek’s view that the sector is evolving into something far larger than a niche trading product.
Kalshi’s partnership with Robinhood has brought new retail attention and contributed to rising volumes, particularly in sports-related contracts. The company is also preparing to expand internationally within the next eighteen months.
This global strategy mirrors the broader growth of prediction markets worldwide as users adopt them for everything from national elections to cultural award shows.
The combination of regulation, market mechanics, and mainstream awareness is creating a foundation that supports long-term development.
If Coinbase proceeds with its Kalshi-powered platform, the relationship between the two companies will become even more influential. Coinbase gains a regulated path into event-based trading while Kalshi gains visibility through one of the most recognised brands in crypto.
Both companies benefit from increased legitimacy, and the sector itself moves closer towards becoming a permanent component of the broader financial landscape.
Conclusion
Coinbase’s emerging prediction market platform represents one of the most notable developments in this expanding sector. By building through Kalshi’s regulated infrastructure, Coinbase avoids major regulatory barriers while presenting a product that could reach millions of existing users.
At the same time, Kalshi’s own momentum highlights how quickly event-based trading is evolving into a serious industry with increasing institutional interest.
Together, these developments show that prediction markets are shifting from experimental tools to structured financial products, and the partnership between Coinbase and Kalshi may be a defining force in that transition.