Bitcoin hitting $150,000 by the end of 2025 might sound like a stretch, but several factors could align to make it happen.
From institutional inflows and macroeconomic shifts to halving dynamics and regulatory developments, the potential is there.
However, price action over the next year will be key, especially as new bearish signals begin to emerge. Here is a closer look at both the bullish and bearish cases for Bitcoin heading into 2025.
What Needs to Happen for Bitcoin to Reach $150,000
Institutional involvement remains one of the most critical drivers. Spot Bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT have already attracted billions of dollars.
If large entities such as pension funds and sovereign wealth funds continue to allocate capital, the available supply of BTC could be squeezed.
This supply pressure would be intensified if more corporations follow MicroStrategy’s path, which currently holds 214,000 BTC on its balance sheet.
Macroeconomic trends may also offer tailwinds. If the US Federal Reserve begins cutting interest rates in 2024 and into 2025, it could shift investor appetite away from bonds and into higher-risk assets like Bitcoin.
A weakening US dollar due to inflation or concerns about fiscal policy could encourage capital to move into Bitcoin as a form of protection.
Additionally, in the event of economic downturns, governments often inject liquidity into markets. This global liquidity surge has historically supported crypto asset prices.
The 2024 halving also plays a central role. Miner rewards were reduced from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block. Based on past cycles, Bitcoin tends to experience parabolic growth 12 to 18 months after such events.
By late 2025, the full impact of reduced selling pressure from miners could be reflected in the market, creating a supply and demand imbalance that fuels upward price movement.
Clearer regulation could further support upward momentum. If the United States passes legislation related to crypto assets, such as stablecoin frameworks or clearer classification rules, it may reduce market uncertainty and attract institutional players.
On a broader level, additional countries following El Salvador’s lead in adopting Bitcoin as part of their national reserves could spark further global interest.
Technical and on-chain data also back a possible bullish case. Long-term holders continue to accumulate while exchange reserves are dropping, signalling reduced short-term selling pressure.
Some analysts believe Bitcoin’s current price action mirrors past cycles, which often culminate in a price peak roughly three to four times the post-halving baseline. From a $60,000 average base after the 2024 halving, that could suggest a $150,000 target.
What Could Derail Bitcoin’s Path to $150,000
Not all signs are bullish. Bitcoin’s current price structure is showing signs of weakness, and some technical patterns are raising concern. A potential “inverse cup and handle” has begun to form.
If Bitcoin breaks below its neckline support at $100,800, the next price area to watch would be $91,000, where the 200-day exponential moving average is located. This area could serve as temporary support, but further decline could follow if bearish pressure continues.
Momentum indicators are also fading. The relative strength index has dropped to 52 and is falling. A break below 50 could indicate that sellers are gaining control. To reverse this trend, Bitcoin needs to regain $105,000, where it faces resistance at the 20-day moving average.
The broader chart tells a similar story. Some analysts have drawn comparisons to Bitcoin’s price structure in late 2021, where a bearish divergence formed between price and RSI before a sharp drop.
If history repeats, the current setup could lead to a decline towards $64,000, aligning with the 200-week moving average.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has also identified a rising wedge pattern, which he views as a bearish signal. For Bitcoin to stay on track for its bullish targets, it must regain its parabolic trendline soon.
On the other hand, technical analyst Dave the Wave remains optimistic. Known for accurately predicting the 2021 correction, he is now suggesting a $200,000 Bitcoin target by late 2025.
His model, based on a logarithmic growth curve, previously flagged the $40,000 range as an attractive entry point.
Since then, Bitcoin’s movement has stayed within the predicted path. If it continues along this trajectory, a late 2025 peak around $200,000 is possible.
However, the lower-priced “buy zone” of the model has already been left behind, indicating that the opportunity for discounted entry may have passed.
It is worth noting that these projections assume stability in macroeconomic conditions. Any significant disruption, whether from a recession, harsh regulatory clampdowns, or geopolitical crises, could easily shift sentiment.
Furthermore, unpredictable events such as exchange failures or breakthroughs in quantum computing could also introduce risk.
Conclusion
For Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of 2025, a number of favourable elements would need to align. Institutional investment, favourable macro trends, reduced supply, and supportive regulation are all part of the equation.
But the current chart patterns suggest caution, and any macro or geopolitical shock could disrupt the path. The potential is there, but reaching it is far from certain. As always, timing, patience, and risk management will be key to navigating what lies ahead.
Editor: Lydicius