Polymarket has emerged as one of the most prominent crypto-native prediction platforms, recognised for its transparent market structure and rapidly changing probabilities that often outpace polls or traditional analysis.
Built on blockchain infrastructure, the platform enables users to trade “Yes” and “No” shares that settle automatically based on real-world outcomes, thereby creating a live signal of market expectations.
As it expands in the United States and positions itself for mainstream adoption, Polymarket is now considering a significant operational change.
The company is exploring the possibility of creating an internal market-making desk, a move that could reshape user experience, liquidity, and the public perception of what decentralised prediction markets should represent.
Why Polymarket Is Considering an Internal Market-Making Desk
Recent reports suggest that Polymarket has been speaking with traders, including professional sports bettors, about joining an in-house market-making team.
Bloomberg noted that several individuals have already been approached, signalling that the company may move ahead as it attempts to strengthen its presence in the United States. The timing is notable.
Polymarket resolved prior regulatory challenges in 2022 after paying a $1.4 million penalty to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and its recent growth has placed new expectations on the platform.
The idea of internal market making is not new in the industry. Kalshi, one of Polymarket’s biggest competitors, already operates an internal liquidity desk called Kalshi Trading. That arrangement has attracted scrutiny, with some users arguing that it creates conflicts of interest.
A recent class-action lawsuit alleges that Kalshi Trading sets betting lines in ways that disadvantage customers, reigniting debate about the role of liquidity providers in prediction markets.
Both Polymarket and Kalshi have also been exploring external firms to bolster liquidity. Susquehanna International Group, a major global trading firm, already acts as a market maker on Kalshi.
This suggests that institutional involvement is becoming more common, particularly as platforms pursue larger user bases and higher trading volumes.
The broader industry context is equally important. Prediction markets have grown rapidly, with the three largest platforms recording a remarkable 565% increase in combined trading volume in Q3 2024. Their total volume reached $3.1 billion, compared with just $463.3 million in the previous quarter.
Polymarket itself has experienced a surge in activity: open interest doubled to $286 million within two months, and the platform saw more than 494,000 active traders in November. During the 2024 election cycle, Polymarket gained widespread attention after markets on the platform accurately signalled Donald Trump’s victory long before traditional polling data reflected the shift.
In this context, Polymarket’s desire to enhance liquidity makes strategic sense. More balanced markets, tighter spreads, and efficient order flow could support its expansion plans, particularly with its iOS app still in closed beta.
However, the move raises questions about whether internal trading aligns with the platform’s original ethos. Founder Shayne Coplan has previously criticised traditional sportsbooks, arguing that they “rip off the consumer” by forcing users to trade against the house.
For critics, Polymarket’s potential transition towards a similar structure highlights a contradiction between its messaging and its operational direction.
Supporters of the change argue that internal market makers could increase accuracy rather than reduce fairness.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong recently stated at the New York Times’ DealBook Summit that desks equipped with better information could actually improve prediction-market signals for the public.
According to Armstrong, traders with specialised expertise can produce “a higher quality signal” that benefits the majority of users who rely on these platforms to interpret future events.
His view reflects a broader belief that prediction markets thrive when informed participants contribute to price discovery.
Polymarket now stands at a crossroads. The company has not announced a timeline for launching the internal desk, nor has it addressed questions about the programme.
Yet with its ongoing expansion in the U.S. and increasing competition from Kalshi, the pressure to strengthen revenue streams and support deeper liquidity is growing.
Whether internal market making becomes part of its long-term model remains an open question, and it is one that both users and regulators will monitor closely.
How This Decision Could Reshape Prediction Markets
If Polymarket proceeds with an in-house trading desk, the implications extend far beyond simple liquidity improvements.
Prediction markets were originally celebrated for being transparent alternatives to traditional betting environments, demonstrating how decentralised mechanisms could reveal collective intelligence without relying on a centralised operator.
Allowing the platform itself to trade against users would blur that distinction, even if such activity is conducted for liquidity purposes rather than profit maximisation.
Still, the operational benefits are difficult to ignore. Platforms like Polymarket depend heavily on active, liquid markets to attract new participants. Thin markets can distort price signals, introduce inefficiencies, and limit the predictive power that makes these platforms appealing.
A reliable liquidity source could support continuous trading, tighten spreads, and reinforce confidence among new users, particularly those unfamiliar with decentralised systems.
The question, however, is whether users will trust the platform if it adopts a structure resembling that of a sportsbook.
The criticism directed at Kalshi Trading illustrates the challenge. Even if Polymarket’s intentions are aligned with market health, perceptions of conflict could undermine the sense of neutrality that prediction markets rely upon.
The fact that Kalshi is already facing legal action over its internal trading practices will undoubtedly influence public expectations.
At the same time, Polymarket’s rapid growth offers a compelling case for innovation. The surge to 494,000 active traders in November and the doubling of open interest reflect a rising demand for real-time forecasting tools.
With the industry’s dramatic volume increase of 565% in Q3 2024, platforms are motivated to evolve quickly. Maintaining reliability and liquidity at this scale is not trivial, and internal market makers may be one of the few solutions capable of supporting sustained expansion.
There is also a broader philosophical debate emerging. Prediction markets have long been viewed as mechanisms for extracting truth from crowds, relying on decentralised participation rather than centralised authority.
Introducing an internal trading desk complicates that narrative, raising questions about who ultimately shapes market outcomes and whether the edges of decentralisation are beginning to blur under commercial pressure.
Despite these tensions, some industry leaders argue that informed participants, whether internal or external, improve forecasting accuracy.
The outcome of Polymarket’s potential decision may therefore depend on whether users prioritise accuracy or independence. Both values are essential, but striking the balance may define the next stage of evolution for prediction-market platforms.
Conclusion
Polymarket’s consideration of an internal market-making desk reflects the natural tension between scale and philosophy within prediction markets.
The platform is expanding rapidly, regulatory barriers have eased, and user demand continues to grow. Yet the question of whether internal trading enhances or undermines trust remains unresolved.
The company must weigh the need for liquidity and revenue against the expectations of a community drawn to decentralised and transparent structures.
As Polymarket prepares for a wider U.S. rollout, the direction it chooses will influence not only its own future but also the broader perception of prediction markets as they evolve into more mature financial tools.